WTI closes at 100.30 dollars and redraws winners and losers in LatAm

The U.S. benchmark crude closed the week at 100.30 dollars per barrel, after slipping 1.6% on Friday, according to Forbes México. With WTI once again above 100 dollars, the gap between stock market winners and losers stopped following the simple line that separates crude exporting countries from importing ones.

The level is being held up by supply. A drone attack launched from Iraq damaged Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, a facility that moves close to seven million barrels per day between the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. Rapidan Energy estimated that Saudi exports will fall by 400,000 barrels per day this month, and Saudi Aramco warned at least two customers in Europe that they will not receive crude in October. For Mexico, a net crude exporter, the Mexican Export Blend closed Friday at 101.12 dollars per barrel, above the 61.8 dollars the Finance Ministry projected for 2027 in the General Economic Policy Criteria submitted to Congress on September 8.

Bloomberg Línea breaks down the dispersion: Colombia has accumulated a 46% gain in dollar terms since late February, while Saudi Arabia is up just 1.4% even though its net oil exports equal close to 16% of GDP. Jennie Li, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, notes that net oil exporters have not consistently outperformed importers. The correlation between the value factor and crude has hovered around 24% over the past 20 years, and South Korea, whose net imports represent 3.2% of GDP, is up 30% since late February on the weight of semiconductors. India, which covers more than 80% of its crude needs with imports, faces greater fiscal pressure, according to the same research house.

Bloomberg Línea projects that net margins for the energy sector in the S&P 500 will rise 435 basis points by the first quarter of 2027. Whether Brent stays above 100 dollars is the variable to watch, the same analysis notes: since 2010, the MSCI emerging markets index has posted negative average monthly returns when crude rises above that level.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.