Spot LNG jumps 150% and reshuffles the market that supplies Mexico
Europe and Asia are bidding for the same cargoes while European storage hits lows; Mexico shows up among the incremental suppliers that Europe adds.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) was trading at 26 dollars per million BTU (MMBtu) in the week to September 11, a 150% rise since February, OilPrice reported. European storage stood at 68.04% of capacity on September 12, 12.1 percentage points below the 80.12% of 2025, according to IEEFA.
Europe swapped Russian pipeline gas for spot LNG and today competes for the same cargoes as Asia. IEEFA documents that European LNG imports fell 3.5% year on year between January and August 2026, that the United States supplied close to 60% of that LNG, and that in August it reached 70%. The analysis notes that European buyers must outbid Asian offers to secure cargoes, which pushes the cost onto bills. Mexico appears in that chain: IEEFA lists it among the suppliers of incremental volumes that Europe adds, alongside Algeria, Nigeria and Mauritania. The country is also the main destination for the gas the United States moves by pipeline.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. LNG exports averaged 17.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in the first half of 2026, 23% more than a year earlier. Capacity keeps growing: on August 28 Cheniere completed the seventh train of Corpus Christi Stage 3, making that terminal the second largest in the United States. The EIA projects that pipeline exports, whose main destination is Mexico, will go from 9.5 Bcf/d in 2025 to 10.0 Bcf/d in 2027, with Energía Costa Azul and the second phase of Fast LNG Altamira adding 0.6 Bcf/d. Asian imports for September are estimated at 20.09 million tonnes, against 22.27 million a year earlier, and European imports at 7.98 million, on the way to 10.53 million in October, according to Kpler, cited by OilPrice.
The figure to watch is the pace of European filling toward November 1 and the entry into force of the European ban on Russian LNG on January 1, 2027. For Mexico, the variable is how much of that U.S. gas stays in the domestic market and at what price.
This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.
Sources
- Europe Outbids Asia for LNG as Prices Surge 150%
- Europe bets on a mild winter when it should be cutting gas demand
- U.S. LNG exports rose 23% in the first half of 2026 because of higher capacity
- Corpus Christi LNG expansion makes facility the second-largest in the United States
- U.S. natural gas exports to grow nearly 30% by 2027 as LNG facilities ramp up
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This article was drafted with AI assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.