U.S. Oil Majors Triple Quarterly Profits; Trump Orders Gasoline Price Probe

Exxon Mobil is set to report an adjusted net profit of $15.9 billion for the second quarter of 2026, more than triple its first-quarter figure, according to analyst estimates compiled by Reuters on July 3. Chevron is expected to reach approximately $9.9 billion, also three times its prior result, marking the best quarterly earnings for both companies since 2022.

The surge in profits coincides with a White House offensive to bring gasoline prices down. Prices currently average $3.85 per gallon, 22 percent above pre-war levels following the conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran, which began in February 2026. The Trump administration has directed the Department of Justice to investigate potential price manipulation in fuel markets, according to Forbes México. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned refiners that the White House is considering administrative action if prices do not fall significantly. For Mexico, the main importer of pipeline natural gas and refined products from the U.S. Gulf basin, the tension between record sector profits and Washington's pressure introduces uncertainty over import costs in the second half of the year.

The gasoline refining margin (the spread between crude oil and refined fuel prices) averaged $25 per barrel in the second quarter, $16 higher than in the first, according to consultancy TPH, as cited by Reuters. Diesel spreads rose $15 to approximately $45 per barrel, the highest level since mid-2022. Export demand from the United States amplified profits, as the war left refineries in other regions short of supply. The White House target of $2.50 per gallon remains distant: the lowest point under the Trump administration was $2.81 at the end of December.

The oil industry has intensified lobbying efforts in Congress to blunt criticism, while analysts at BMO Capital Markets anticipate companies will accelerate share buybacks in the second half of the year. The November U.S. midterm elections make gasoline prices a central issue of the campaign.

This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.