Crude falls 12% on the week despite attacks on tankers in Hormuz

The January Brent contract accumulated a decline of close to 12% in the week to November 6, 2026, while the front-month contracts lost about 17%, the largest weekly drop since April 2020, according to Bloomberg Línea. On Friday, January Brent traded at 98.40 dollars per barrel.

The selloff accelerated on Wednesday the 4th, a day after the Democratic Party won both chambers in the US midterm elections. The market priced in a faster exit from the conflict with Iran: Brent closed that session at 94.62 dollars, a drop of 8.7%, and WTI at 88.12 dollars, 8.3% lower, according to El Economista. Both benchmarks closed at their lowest level since August 31. For Mexico, the reference is the export blend, which sets the value of Pemex crude sales and part of budget revenue.

The Mexican blend closed on November 4 at 81.69 dollars per barrel, a decline of 9.52% on the day and its lowest level since August 31, according to El Economista. The following day it rebounded to 85 dollars, the close Infobae reported using Pemex data. Even so, it is trading more than 20 dollars below the 106.81 dollars of October 30 and still above the 61.8 dollars per barrel assumption that the 2027 Economic Package set for the blend. The normalization of Gulf exports, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates recovering pre-conflict volumes, and a stronger dollar also weighed on prices, according to Bloomberg Línea.

Attacks on vessels provided the floor. OilPrice reported, citing Reuters data, at least five incidents involving ships in the Persian Gulf since Sunday. ING analysts cited by that outlet noted that, absent escalation, the market will continue to gradually shed the risk premium accumulated in previous months.

What comes next: transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia's official price cuts to Asia, which Bloomberg Línea places at a six-year low, will determine whether the risk premium keeps falling. On the Mexican side, the reference will be the daily price of the blend against the 2027 budget assumption.

This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.