Brent Falls 8.7% After US Elections, Dragging Down Mexican Blend

Brent closed on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at 94.62 dollars per barrel, a drop of 8.7% in the session, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at 88.12 dollars, 8.3% lower, after the Democrats won a majority in both chambers of the US Congress, according to Rigzone, which cited data from Saxo Bank. These were the lowest closes for both benchmarks since August 31.

The market priced in that a Democratic Congress could curb financing for the conflict with Iran and favor a negotiated exit, according to Bloomberg, which reported an 8% plunge during the session. The war, now in its ninth month, had disrupted crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz and kept a risk premium in prices. In Mexico the effect transmits through two channels: lower revenue from crude exports and lower costs for importing gasoline and diesel.

The Mexican export blend followed the same path: it closed Wednesday at 81.69 dollars per barrel, 9.92% lower, its lowest level since August 31, and accumulated a 23% decline over three sessions, according to Energy & Commerce, which cites Pemex data. On Tuesday, before the election result, El Economista, with information from Reuters, had reported a close of 90.29 dollars. In the market, analyst Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital Markets told Rigzone that the move "has run ahead of the fundamentals"; the S&P Energy index was down 4.77% and Brent was trading near 94 dollars on Thursday, according to OilPrice.

What's next: traders are watching Brent's 200-day moving average, near 92.93 dollars, as a technical reference, and the conclusion of an agreement between Washington and Tehran, which the parties have not yet reached according to the sources consulted by Rigzone. Wood Mackenzie projected that diesel and jet fuel prices will ease as the conflict diminishes, although the most affected products will remain 30% above pre-war forecasts in 2027. For Mexico, the immediate data point is the daily close of the blend and its transfer to the oil revenue estimate in the Economic Package.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.