Mexico Mix Holds at $73 Despite Strait of Hormuz Reopening

The Mexican Export Mix closed on June 17, 2026 at $73 per barrel, a marginal 1% gain on the day, according to Bloomberg Línea, even as the United States and Iran signed a peace agreement that reopened the Strait of Hormuz to international oil traffic.

Mexican crude had endured weeks of downward pressure while the Middle East conflict restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz to a low of 9.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in May 2026. With the agreement in place, flows recovered to approximately 12 mb/d in the first days of June, according to the IEA's June 2026 Oil Market Report. Markets had, however, already priced in the de-escalation scenario before the formal announcement, which explains why WTI at $75/barrel and Brent at $78 failed to pull the Mexican crude into a broader recovery. The pricing gap also reflects the structural discount the blend carries relative to benchmark grades.

The global supply and demand picture adds further pressure. The IEA's June edition reported that world oil demand is contracting by 1.1 mb/d in 2026 versus 2025, while supply fell to 102.4 mb/d, a reduction of 3.9 mb/d from the prior year. Both forces anchor prices at moderate levels. OECD inventories fell 163 million barrels between April and May, the lowest level since December 1990. For Mexico the impact is direct: every one-dollar swing in crude prices equals roughly $600 million in annual fiscal revenue, according to Bloomberg Línea. Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), with output of 1.6 mb/d (a four-decade low), has little room to compensate through volume.

The next market signal will be the quota review by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), which produced 30.3 mb/d in May. Pemex's quarterly report and July production data from the Ministry of Energy (SENER) will provide the next read on fiscal impact.

This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.