Europe Enters August at 57% Gas Storage, Lowest Since 2011

European Union gas stores stood at 57% of capacity on August 5, the lowest level for that date since 2011, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) reported by Bloomberg. On the same date last year they exceeded 70%.

Inventory replenishment is progressing slowly because the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market tightened after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which removed roughly 20% of Qatar's LNG contribution from world supply. Reuters reports that Asian buyers are outbidding Europeans for available spot cargoes and that the market has entered backwardation: near-term gas costs more than winter-delivery contracts, leaving operators with no financial incentive to fill storage at current prices. The European Commission's indicative target is to reach 80% fill by December 1.

Reuters forecasts put maximum pre-winter fill between 67% and 76% of capacity, below the target. For Latin America, the key signal is the Atlantic LNG spot price: terminals in Mexico, Brazil and Chile receive a share of those cargoes and compete for supply from the same pool as European buyers, in a market where Europe is the marginal buyer of US Gulf LNG. Wood Mackenzie estimates that low inventories, strong Asian demand and limited new supply growth will keep prices elevated through winter and into 2027. The European TTF (Title Transfer Facility) benchmark price rose from roughly 31 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) before the conflict to around 60 euros at the end of July, and stood at approximately 53 euros this week.

The signal to watch is the GIE injection curve over the coming weeks: if fill rates do not accelerate toward the December target, Europe will enter the boreal winter with a thin cushion and competition for Atlantic LNG will persist. For Latin American terminals, that dynamic sets the spot price for the final quarter.

This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.