XM: Only 331 MW of 4,475 Planned Operate in Colombia; 3,906 GWh Deficit

Of the 4,475 megawatts (MW) of new generation capacity Colombia planned to add in 2026, only 331 MW, or 7.4%, were in operation as of July 2, according to the latest report from national grid operator XM. The lag, combined with 42 delayed transmission projects, opens an estimated deficit of 3,906 gigawatt-hours (GWh) per year for the 2026–2027 period.

XM's warning, reported by El Colombiano and El Espectador, comes amid record demand: average daily consumption in June reached 261.86 GWh, the highest level in the country's recent history, with year-on-year growth of 6.49%. Added to this is a probability above 95% that an El Niño phenomenon will develop in the coming months, with a 63% chance of very strong intensity between November 2026 and January 2027. A drought during that period reduces hydroelectric generation, the country's main source, and increases pressure on thermal plants.

Sixty percent of the 42 national transmission grid expansion projects are behind schedule. In parallel, the eastern region (which includes Bogotá, Cundinamarca, Meta, and Guaviare) faces critical risk between September and December 2026 due to the coincidence of maintenance at the Chivor plant (500 MW offline out of its 1,000 MW total, from October 16, 2026, to June 10, 2027) and works at the Guavio intake (1,150 MW, with reservoir emptied from September to December). In the Caribbean, the situation is already tangible: between April and June, 165 load-shedding instructions were executed, preventive rationing that left 5.69 GWh of demand unserved.

XM calculates that under a critical scenario the system will need 439,000 MBTU per day of natural gas for 20 weeks and 23,580 barrels per day of liquid fuels for 21 weeks. The Energy and Gas Regulatory Commission (CREG) is preparing a firm energy sale reconfiguration auction whose outcome will define the National Interconnected System's margin for the 2026–2027 summer.

This note was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.