XM Warns of 3,906 GWh Deficit in Colombia; Only 7.4% of New Capacity Is Online

Colombia's electricity market operator XM warned on July 3, 2026 that electricity demand will outstrip guaranteed generation capacity between this year and 2027, with an estimated annual deficit of 3,906 GWh that opens the door to scheduled rationing across the country.

Colombian electricity demand reached a historic record of 261.86 GWh per day in May 2026, with a peak load of 12,475 MW, according to XM's energy bulletin published on July 3. Rising demand, combined with a 63% probability of a very strong El Niño event between November 2026 and January 2027, narrows the national interconnected system's room to maneuver. Compounding this is the simultaneous scheduled maintenance of two key hydroelectric plants: the 500 MW second stage of Chivor and the complete drawdown of the Guavio reservoir (1,150 MW of capacity) for works on its water intake, as reported by El Espectador.

Of the 4,475 MW of new generation capacity planned for 2026, only 331 MW had come online by July 2 (7.4% of the target), reported El Colombiano. On the transmission side, 60% of the 42 National Transmission System projects are delayed, with 37 operational restrictions under emergency status concentrated primarily on the Caribbean coast. Between April and June 2026, that region accumulated 165 preventive load-shedding instructions, a targeted rationing mechanism the operator activates when the grid cannot support local demand. XM calculates that, in an extreme scenario, the volume of rationed energy would equal 19.7% of national demand, requiring up to 439,000 MMBTU per day of natural gas for 20 weeks and 23,580 barrels per day of liquid fuels for 21 weeks.

XM recommended accelerating the commissioning of new generation and transmission projects, incentivizing conservation, and ensuring full availability of the thermal fleet. The operator's report will serve as the baseline for the government to decide, in the coming weeks, whether to activate scheduled rationing measures ahead of 2027.

This article was written with artificial intelligence assistance based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.