USMCA Support Tops 73% Across All Three Countries Ahead of July Review

73% of Mexicans, 78% of Americans, and 81% of Canadians view USMCA as beneficial to their economies, according to a trilateral survey published June 26 by Buendía & Márquez, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and Nanos Research.

The findings land five days before the formal start of the treaty's first six-year review, set for July 1, 2026. This mechanism, established under Article 34.7, will determine whether the agreement extends for another 16 years or enters a cycle of annual reviews through 2036. The majority public backing, reported by El Universal, gives all three governments political room to advance on the most complex negotiating chapters, particularly the energy one. In Mexico, support for the treaty has grown from 44% recorded in 2004, though it has slipped from the 78% seen in 2018. Only 19% of Mexicans prefer maintaining current terms; 50% support renegotiating and 20% favor exiting the agreement. By contrast, 51% in the United States and 52% in Canada prefer keeping it unchanged.

The review opened with a first technical round on May 28 in Mexico City. A second round is scheduled for July 16 and 17 in Washington, according to the Atlantic Council. On the table: automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum, digital trade, and the energy investment framework. On that last front, USMCA's Chapter 14 contains a ratchet clause that prevents countries from rolling back measures that opened investment to private actors once adopted. The clause is directly relevant given Mexico's 2024 and 2025 constitutional reforms, which assigned CFE (Comisión Federal de Electricidad) at least 54% of national electricity generation and granted it dispatch priority over private generators.

With public support above 70% in all three countries, negotiating teams enter the decisive phase with solid domestic political cover. Chapter 14, which bars reversal of private investment openings, will be among the most closely watched elements by markets as technical rounds advance in Washington and Mexico City.

This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.