Global solar falls 10.8% in 2026 on China's 29% slump

Global solar installations will total 584 GW in 2026, 10.8% below the 655 GW recorded in 2025, according to the BloombergNEF forecast published on October 15, 2026. The worldwide decline is almost entirely explained by China, where the research firm projects 271 GW, a 29% drop from 383 GW in 2025.

The revision falls well outside the range of earlier estimates. In the first quarter of 2025, BloombergNEF projected 753 GW globally for 2026; the current figure sits 29% below that reading. In China, the first half of 2026 saw roughly 71.8 GW installed, against 212.2 GW in the same period of 2025, according to pv magazine México, which reproduces the firm's analysis. For the photovoltaic supply chains that serve projects in Mexico and the rest of Latin America, the Chinese module market is the main hub for manufacturing and price setting.

Outside China, the picture is different. BloombergNEF estimates 313 GW installed across the rest of the world in 2026, against 272 GW in 2025, an advance of close to 15%. Filipino analyst Jenny Chase, a clean technology specialist at BloombergNEF, attributed China's slowdown to market saturation and argued that batteries and electric vehicles will not halt the decline: they "simply slow it down a little." Growth outside China comes from India, the Philippines, Nigeria and Malaysia; in the last two cases, almost exclusively from residential and commercial installations. The phenomenon has an effect on global investment: according to BloombergNEF, the non-utility-scale segment is now the largest recipient of renewable investment in the world, following China's pullback in large-scale projects.

The next read on the market will come with year-end figures. BloombergNEF expects to update its projections, and Chinese module export data published by InfoLink Consulting will signal how much supply flows toward Latin America in the fourth quarter.

This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.