Pemex Transfers Triple Health Spending as Moody's Sees $10 Billion Floor

The Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP) transferred 136,521 million pesos to Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) between January and September 2026, an amount 3.4 times larger than the programmable spending received by the Secretaría de Salud in the same period, 39,951 million pesos, according to El CEO.

The figure is also equivalent to 3.89 times the 35,026 million pesos of the Secretaría de Seguridad y Protección Ciudadana and 4.4 times the 31,169 million allocated to Ciencia, Humanidades, Tecnología e Innovación, according to the same tally at the close of the third quarter. On the financing side, Moody's Ratings estimated that Pemex requires at least 10,000 million dollars in annual federal support for three to five years to cover debt maturities, and calculates operating deficits of about 10,000 million annually through 2028.

"On average we expect at least 10 billion in transfers each year," said Roxana Muñoz, senior vice president of ratings at Moody's, at the Inside LatAm México 2026 event on September 24. The oil company's adjusted debt stands at around 97,000 million dollars as of June 2026, with estimated maturities of 4,800 million in 2027 and 9,000 million in 2028, plus pension liabilities of close to 84,000 million and 21,500 million with suppliers. Since 2019, the federal government has injected 1.885 trillion pesos into Pemex, of which 80% corresponds to direct capital contributions, 17% to tax incentives and 3% to other support, according to El CEO.

Renzo Merino, vice president of Sovereign Risk at Moody's, noted that it will be key to watch whether the company reduces debt with its own resources or through federal transfers; in the second case, the financial pressure shifts to the federal government. Javier Guzmán Calafell, former deputy governor of Banco de México, said in an interview with El CEO that Pemex's risk is reflected in the sovereign rating and that, if public finances and the oil company's situation are not corrected, Mexico will lose its investment grade. The Economic Analysis area of Banco BASE estimated that the oil company will require more support via direct transfers during the remainder of the administration, which implies deeper cuts to public spending through physical investment.

The next reference point will be the 2027 budget package, which defines the amount of support, and compliance with that year's maturities of 4,800 million dollars.

This note was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.