OPEC projects 23% more primary energy demand by 2050

OPEC projects that global energy demand will grow 23% by 2050, with oil at 124 million barrels per day (mb/d), according to its World Oil Outlook 2026. At the 25th World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh, its secretary general, Haitham al Ghais, put the necessary investment at 18 trillion dollars on October 12, according to La Razón.

OPEC's report, the twentieth edition of the document that the organization has published since 2007, estimates 17.7 trillion dollars in oil investment between 2026 and 2050, more than 700,000 million dollars a year. The short-term figure is different: al Ghais said that this year's demand growth was revised to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 mb/d estimated at the start of the year, and that this consumption was shifted to 2027, when OPEC expects 1.7 mb/d, according to TASS. For Mexico, the pace of investment in the Gulf basin defines the conditions for the natural gas and refined products that cross the border.

In his remarks, al Ghais linked growth to urbanization, with more than 1,800 million people moving to cities by 2050, a world economy that will double with annual GDP growth of 3%, and demand from artificial intelligence data centers. He stressed the sector's long lead times: “people don't realize that you have to invest today to be able to produce in five, six or seven years,” he said about exploration, refining and distribution. Public financing shows another proportion: the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) documents that the World Bank Group accounts for 48 of 93 petrochemical and fertilizer projects tracked at multilateral banks, 65.7% of the value, and builds 7.49 dollars of new capacity for every dollar of decarbonization, compared with 3.2 to 1 for the group as a whole.

The next checkpoint is 2027 demand, when OPEC projects 1.7 million barrels per day of growth. Annual investment, which the group places above 700,000 million dollars, is the other variable to watch. The 25th World Petroleum Congress continues this week in Riyadh, with international oil companies and their investment decisions on the agenda.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.