Mexican Mix closes at 99.16 dollars, above the price forecast in the 2026 package

The Mexican Export Mix closed on Friday, October 16, 2026, at 99.16 dollars per barrel, a gain of 2.71 dollars over the previous close and its highest level in three weeks, according to Pemex figures reported by La Jornada. The Brent benchmark rose 3.94 dollars to close at 109.86 dollars, its highest close since May, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ended at 101.41 dollars, according to Reuters.

According to Reuters, Brent gained 4.9% on the week and WTI 10.4%. The push came from supply risks in the Middle East: attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, the impact of an Iranian projectile on the container ship GFS Pride, and Ukraine's intention to resume attacks on Russian refineries. For Mexico the differential matters because the Mix trades above the 54.9 dollars per barrel that the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP) included in the 2026 Economic Package, and each dollar of difference in the annual average contributes about 11,600 million pesos in revenue, according to Expansión.

The gap between Friday's close and the budgeted price is around 44 dollars per barrel. The figure does not translate directly to the treasury: the stimuli to the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) on gasoline and diesel offset part of the gain when crude rises. In addition, the reference price is calculated using annual averages, not one-day closes. For the regional market, a heavy crude near 100 dollars also raises the cost of the crude processed by refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast and the logistics cost of Mexican gasoline imports.

On the global supply side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release more than 20 million barrels from its emergency reserves, and the U.S. Department of Energy published a solicitation to exchange up to 17 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to Reuters. The next data point to watch is the close that Pemex publishes for Monday, October 19, which will show whether the 99-dollar level holds or marks a weekly peak.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.