Mexico Must Decide by 2035 Whether to Replace Laguna Verde or Lose Nuclear Power

Mexico has until 2035 to decide whether to build new nuclear capacity and replace Laguna Verde, according to specialist Ramsés Pech, who laid out the timeline on August 13, 2026, and El CEO reported it again on October 23. The plant at Alto Lucero, Veracruz, the country's only nuclear station, runs two reactors with 1,552 MW combined and supplies close to 3% of national electricity.

Laguna Verde began construction in 1976; Unit 1 operated from July 29, 1990, and Unit 2 from April 20, 1995. Its licenses expire in 2050 and 2055, but approving and building a reactor takes between 10 and 15 years. That is why 2035 is the last practical date for having new nuclear capacity operating before the shutdown, according to the Petróleo y Energía column. Pech warns that, without a decision, nuclear power will disappear "by omission, not by an explicit decision."

In Mexico, Cenace data cited by El CEO puts nuclear at 3.6% of energy generated between January and June 2026, against just over 60% for combined cycle. The plant runs at a capacity factor close to 88%, the highest in the system, and produces around 12 TWh a year, according to Pech. The Instituto de Desarrollo, Energía y Ambiente (IDEA), also cited by El CEO, notes that nuclear emits about 12 kg of CO₂ equivalent per MWh across its full life cycle, against 490 for natural gas and 820 for coal, though it uses a finite input such as uranium and generates radioactive waste.

The debate comes amid a global upswing. The International Atomic Energy Agency reported on September 15, 2026, that 413 reactors with 377.1 GW(e) were operating at the end of 2025, and that its high projection reaches 1,045 GW(e) in 2050. Pech estimates that a replacement would require between five and six small modular reactors (SMRs) of 300 MW each; the gas route would add almost 9 million tonnes of CO₂ a year, and the solar-plus-batteries route would require about 6,000 MW.

The next data point to watch is whether the Secretaría de Energía and the Comisión Federal de Electricidad publish a program, a tender or an SMR licensing route within the 2026-2035 decade, before the licenses expire.

This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.