Mexican Mix trades at US$105, above the US$62 price Hacienda forecast
Mexican crude has now logged two straight sessions above US$100, while the reference price in the 2027 Economic Package is US$62 per barrel.
The Mexican Export Blend (Mezcla Mexicana de Exportación) traded at US$105 per barrel on September 11, 2026, a daily gain of 5% that put it above US$100 for a second consecutive session, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Línea.
The spot price sits far above the budget reference: the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público estimated an average of US$78 per barrel for the Mexican blend at the close of 2026 and US$62 for 2027, according to the Economic Package for next year. In its economic policy criteria, the ministry notes that a rise in the oil price increases export revenue by more than it increases Pemex's spending on hydrocarbon imports. The move is global: The Guardian reported on September 10 a 6% jump in the international crude price, above US$107, amid fears that advances by Houthi rebels along the Red Sea coast could disrupt Saudi Arabia's exports.
The fiscal sensitivity of Mexican crude is quantified: every dollar of change in the average oil price has an effect of MXN$9,600 million on the country's oil revenues. The physical side of the balance moves in the opposite direction. Pemex has cut its oil exports by 50% since 2024, as part of its fuel self-sufficiency policy. On the global supply side, Saudi Arabia told OPEC that its production fell by 1.9 million barrels per day, to 6.2 million, its lowest level since 1990, the financial group Actinver detailed in a report. WTI, the U.S. benchmark, traded around US$103 per barrel, while Brent, the European benchmark, stood near US$108.
The gap between the spot price and the budget reference generates extraordinary short-term revenue, with a structural limit: the decline in Pemex's exports. The next checkpoint is the conflict in the Persian Gulf, through which 20% of world trade in crude oil and liquefied natural gas flows, according to Bloomberg Línea.
This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.
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This article was drafted with AI assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.