60-Day Waiver Opens the Door to Iranian Crude, but Its Return Will Be Slow

The U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a 60-day waiver on June 22 suspending sanctions on Iranian crude, petrochemicals, and derivatives, effective through August 21. Brent fell to $72.45 per barrel, but the physical return of Iranian oil to market will be slower than prices currently reflect.

General License X (GL X) is part of the memorandum of understanding signed June 17 by Presidents Trump and Pezeshkian, which includes a 60-day peace framework and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. According to Kpler data cited by the Atlantic Council, Iran was exporting an average of 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) between November 2025 and January 2026, a volume that collapsed to just over 720,000 barrels per day in June during the naval blockade. For Latin America, the normalization of Iranian supply (or its absence) defines the Brent trajectory, the benchmark anchoring petroleum revenues for Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador.

The Atlantic Council warns that GL X alone will not immediately reactivate Iranian exports. Three obstacles persist: maritime insurance premiums in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated (CNBC reports that insurers will need months of verified stability before cutting rates); major U.S. banks are reluctant to process payments without clear compliance guidance from the Treasury; and the discounts Tehran was offering China will shrink as the crude becomes legal, eroding the purchasing incentive. BNP Paribas projects Brent at $80 at end-2026 and a range of $75 to $85 for 2027, according to CNBC, with global inventories that will need to be rebuilt after the conflict.

The waiver expires August 21. The variable to watch is whether the Treasury issues the compliance letters that banks, insurers, and shipping companies need to operate without legal risk. Without that step, Iranian barrels will continue flowing below capacity even with sanctions suspended.

This article was produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.