IEA cuts global crude supply by 5.7 million barrels per day

The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its global crude supply forecast on September 11, 2026 by 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d): it now expects a decline of 5.7 million b/d this year and puts global production at 100.7 million b/d, according to the report published by Argus Media.

The revision reflects the agency's decision to push back the full recovery of Persian Gulf production to 2027, with more than 10 million b/d still offline and transit through the Strait of Hormuz restricted throughout 2026, according to the same report. The move matters to Mexico twice over: the heavy crude it exports is placed in a market of sustained prices, while the gasoline and diesel it imports become more expensive along with refined products.

In parallel, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that U.S. crude production will average 13.8 million b/d in 2026, above the record 13.7 million b/d of 2025. Much of the growth is concentrated in the Permian Basin, in Texas and New Mexico, and in the federal Gulf of America.

The report documents a concentrated contraction. Saudi Arabia's crude supply fell 2.3 million b/d in August, to 6 million b/d, its lowest level in more than three decades, and OPEC+ production dropped 1.8 million b/d, to 38.8 million b/d, according to OilPrice. Observed global inventories have accumulated a drawdown of 507 million barrels since February, their lowest level since 2023, while refining margins in the Atlantic basin reached historic highs. On the U.S. side, the EIA puts the reported breakeven price at 69 dollars per barrel in the Midland Basin and 63 in the Delaware, both below the average of 84 dollars per barrel that WTI recorded through August 2026.

The IEA and OPEC differ on demand: the former expects a contraction of 2.5 million b/d in 2026, while the latter maintains projected growth of 380,000 b/d. The next signal will be the October Oil Market Report and the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, both published monthly.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.