Hormuz Traffic Quadruples; Analysts Cut Brent Forecast to $84.50

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz quadrupled in the final week of June, and Brent crude closed on July 3 at $72 per barrel, a 43% drop from the $126 high it reached in April. The normalization of maritime passage, following the US-Iran ceasefire, has pushed analysts to cut their annual Brent forecasts for the first time in 2026.

According to data from maritime platform Signal, cited by The Guardian, daily trackable voyages through Hormuz rose from between one and two for most of the conflict to eight on July 1, measured by a seven-day moving average. Lloyd's List Intelligence reported 258 total transits in the week ending June 28, compared with just 41 in the first week of the crisis in March. The 60-day US-Iran ceasefire, combined with growing confidence among shipowners, is restoring flows to a market that had lost nearly one-fifth of global crude supply. For Mexico, the drop in Brent carries a direct fiscal consequence: the Mexican Export Mix trades at a discount to Brent, and every dollar the global benchmark loses below the budget assumption reduces oil revenues that support 16% of federal public spending.

A Reuters poll of 31 economists and analysts, published June 30 and cited by Gulf Times, cut the average Brent forecast for 2026 to $84.50 per barrel, from $90.44 the previous month. It is the first downward revision since the conflict with Iran began. Citigroup, through analyst Francesco Martoccia, projects that Brent could fall to $60 per barrel by end-2026, The Guardian reported. HSBC estimates the market will shift from a deficit of nearly two million barrels per day to a surplus of one million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, according to its head of oil and gas research for Europe, Kim Fustier, cited by Gulf Times.

James Hosie, analyst at Shore Capital, told The Guardian that if the truce collapses and blockades return, Brent will shoot back above $100 per barrel. OPEC+ will add another 188,000 barrels per day in August, applying further downward pressure. The durability of the ceasefire and OPEC+'s September decision will define the price of the Mexican Mix in the second half of the year.

This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.