Goldman Sachs maps three Brent scenarios for 2027, ranging from US$60 to US$125

Goldman Sachs keeps a mean forecast of US$80 per barrel of Brent for 2027, with alternative scenarios ranging from US$60 to US$125, according to Bloomberg Línea on October 15, 2026. For the fourth quarter, the bank estimates a supply deficit of just 300,000 barrels per day (b/d), versus 7.2 million in March.

The benchmark matters for Mexico because the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público set the average price of the Mexican export basket at 61.8 dollars per barrel on September 8, 2026, within the 2027 Economic Package, with production of 1.8001 million b/d. The futures market is trading above that assumption: the January 2027 Brent contract is quoted at 102.59 dollars, according to OilPrice.

Goldman Sachs' three scenarios hinge on the recovery of supply in the Persian Gulf:

- Central: regional production 300,000 b/d below February 2026; Brent falls from US$88 in January 2027 to US$75 in December. - Bullish: production stays 5 million b/d lower; Brent averages close to US$125. - Bearish: the region exports 1 million b/d above February; Brent drops to the US$60 range.

The bank raised its Brent forecast for December 2026 from US$85 to US$90 and maintains that the market will shift to a surplus from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the end of 2027.

OilPrice reports that the war premium remains in place: Gulf exports recover in part through ship-to-ship transfers that make freight more expensive, and the International Energy Agency announced the release of more than 20 million barrels of diesel from collective inventories.

For the region, the gap between scenarios translates into the Treasury's oil revenues and the cost of hedges. What follows are the IEA inventories and the Persian Gulf production developments that Goldman itself identifies as key variables.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.