Ember estimates only 3% of data centers will be able to shift their demand by 2030

Only about 3% of global data center capacity will be able to shift its electricity consumption by 2030, according to research from the analysis center Ember published on October 29, 2026. The finding narrows expectations about how much relief load flexibility can provide to the power grids serving the artificial intelligence boom.

According to Ember, 87% of capacity in 2030 will run cloud services, corporate systems and AI inference, loads that cannot be paused or moved easily. Centers dedicated to model training, which do tolerate interruptions, will account for just 13%. Latitude Media reported that the calculation starts from a theoretical share of 6.5% and adjusts it with an average utilization rate of 48%, which leaves the cited 3%.

The impact on the grid also has limits. Ember analyzed nine markets, including Texas, California, New York, Ireland and Malaysia. In seven of them, load shifting would reduce peak demand by between 0.1% and 0.6% by 2030; Ireland and Malaysia would reach close to 1.5%, given their greater concentration of data centers relative to peak.

On-site generation appears to be the most effective route. In the case of Stargate Abilene and Comanche Circle, two AI centers in Texas that add about 5.6 gigawatts of new load by 2030, self-generation can free up to 2.7 GW at peak, compared with about 0.55 GW from load shifting, according to Ember.

For the US-Gulf region and Mexico, the reading applies on two fronts. On one hand, the connection rules for large loads are being written now: the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) instructed grid operators in June to justify or revise their criteria, and ERCOT, the Texas market operator, has already adopted non-firm interconnection routes. On the other, the new centers operating under those rules require their own backup, which adds pressure on natural gas and batteries, two markets in which Mexico appears as a buyer and, in gas, as a corridor to Texas.

What's next: watch the flexibility rule that the operator PJM must submit by November 16 and the interconnection criteria that ERCOT adopts, which define how quickly new demand can connect on the US side of the energy bridge.

This note was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.