Trump-Authorized Russian Diesel Eases Pressure on the Global Market

Benchmark Brent crude opened the week of October 19, 2026 at 107.84 dollars per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at 100.29 dollars, a moderate decline from Friday's close, according to OilPrice. The move follows the executive order that U.S. President Donald Trump signed on October 16 to lift sanctions in force on Russian energy, most of them introduced by the Lindsay O. Graham Act.

The adjustment is explained by the agreement Trump and Vladimir Putin struck to send about 2.3 million barrels of Russian diesel to the United States and other markets this month, followed by another 7.6 million in November and in the months after, according to OilPrice. The U.S. Treasury issued a temporary license allowing the sale, delivery and import of diesel of Russian origin until April 7, 2027, BBC reported. Even with the decline, both benchmarks remain above the prior Monday: Brent traded at 105.61 dollars and WTI at 93.37 dollars on October 12, OilPrice notes.

For Mexico the data has a direct reading. Imports covered 38% of national diesel consumption in the first half of 2026, with an average of 442,000 barrels per day consumed and 98% of what was imported of U.S. origin, according to Expansión. The price of diesel in the United States hit a record 6.53 dollars per gallon on September 22, 2026, according to that same publication.

In parallel, the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP) raised the additional diesel stimulus by 115%, to 2.30 pesos per liter, for the week of October 17 to 23, and for the sixth consecutive week it will not fully collect the IEPS of 7.3 pesos per liter, Bloomberg Línea reported. The voluntary cap of 27 pesos per liter remains in place.

Analysts cited by OilPrice note that the agreed volume is far from moving the global balance, although traders reacted. OilPrice itself points to uncertainty over how long the exemption will last and the flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which the maritime analysis firm Kpler places at a seven-day moving average of 8.5 million barrels per day, versus about 20 million the previous week.

The EIA projects in its October report that Brent will average 105 dollars in the fourth quarter of 2026 and fall to 87 dollars in the second quarter of 2027, according to Rigzone. It will be the next update of the diesel balance and the pace of Russian shipments that determines whether the decline holds.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.