COP31 and IRENA set a 193 GW geothermal target for 2050

The Turkish Presidency of COP31 and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) launched the Global Geothermal Ambition 2050 on November 10, 2026, in Antalya, a commitment to scale global geothermal supply twelvefold: from 15.6 GW installed in 2025 to 193 GW in 2050.

The European Union joined that same day, according to the announcement from the European Commission's Directorate-General for Energy. European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jørgensen tied geothermal to the bloc's energy security, competitiveness and resilience, and described it as a source of baseload electricity that is independent of weather conditions. The target stems from the 1.5 °C-compatible pathway in IRENA's World Energy Transitions Outlook 2026, which projects primary supply of about 2.5 exajoules (EJ) in 2025 and 31 EJ in 2050. Adherence is voluntary: each country retains autonomy over its policies and strategies, and contributes according to its resources and national circumstances.

The pace the target demands is the most demanding data point. IRENA estimates that roughly 7 GW of new capacity per year is required through 2050, compared with annual additions of between 200 and 400 MW in recent years, according to ThinkGeoEnergy. Piensa Geotermia details the commitments asked of adherents: faster permitting, predictable investment conditions, coordination of electricity and heat grids, public and private investment, instruments to mitigate exploration risk, and access to affordable financing. It also calls for respecting the rights of affected communities, including Indigenous peoples. For Latin America, the emphasis on exploration risk and the cost of capital touches the two variables that the declaration itself identifies as obstacles. In Türkiye, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar put his country's installed geothermal capacity at 1.8 GW, the fourth largest in the world, and called on governments, investors and companies to back the commitment, according to Anadolu Ajansı.

The next checkpoint comes on November 13, with the roundtable From Ambition to Delivery, convened by the COP31 Presidency and IRENA's Global Geothermal Alliance (GGA) to discuss financing and project risk mitigation. Collective progress will be measured through the reporting mechanisms IRENA already operates.

This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.