China's CO2 emissions fall 3.1% in quarter marked by Hormuz

China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell 3.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, the steepest quarterly decline since the 2022 lockdowns, according to analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) published by Carbon Brief on November 6, 2026.

The figure extends a trend of flat or falling emissions that began in March 2024 and now spans more than two years, according to Carbon Brief. So far in 2026, the estimated decline is 0.5%; the analysis draws on official figures and trade data. Coal consumption fell 3% and oil consumption 4%, while transport fuel use dropped 9%. Bloomberg reported that the fall is the sharpest since the pandemic and attributed it to fossil fuel prices rising during the Strait of Hormuz crisis. For net fuel importers, Mexico among them, costlier crude raises the price of imported gasoline, diesel and natural gas and puts pressure on the energy trade balance.

Figures from the analysis detail the shift in the energy mix. Coal-fired generation fell 3.3%, while solar, wind and nuclear added 110 TWh year on year, more than double the growth in total electricity demand: a volume equivalent to Germany's total generation over the same period. Electric vehicles reached 67% of passenger car sales and 50% of heavy truck sales in September. China also keeps building coal-fired plants at a pace close to record highs, which reduces operating hours and profits at those plants. CREA calculated that the country saved 9.1 billion dollars on oil and gas imports between March and August, with a crude reserve of 1.3 billion barrels, according to OilPrice.

The analysis is published days before COP31, which opens on November 9 in Antalya, Turkey. The variable to watch is whether the decline holds once China's electricity demand picks up again, and how much of the import savings passes through to crude buyers in the region.

This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.