Brent Crude Surges Past $100 Amid Red Sea Attacks

Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel on July 23 for the first time since May 2026, driven by missile and drone attacks from Yemen's Houthi rebels on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. The global benchmark rose 6.45% during the session to $101.10, while US WTI advanced 5.37% to $91.49, according to Bloomberg Línea.

The tankers Encelia and Layla were hit by projectiles approximately 70 nautical miles from the Saudi coast in the Red Sea, confirmed by the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). The attack expands the supply crisis to a second chokepoint: the Strait of Hormuz, through which passes nearly 20% of global oil and gas trade. This route has already seen severe disruptions since March due to the escalation between the United States and Iran, which on July 23 completed its twelfth consecutive night of bombing Iranian targets. Saudi Arabia had redirected more than 70% of its exports, equivalent to 4.5 million barrels daily, through the port of Yanbu to bypass Hormuz. That route is now under direct threat, reported The National.

The Mexican export blend closed on July 22 at $84.76 per barrel, a daily increase of 4.80% and an accumulated rise of 9.1% over five business days, according to Pemex data reported by Infobae. The Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) responded to the price hike by increasing fiscal incentives on the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) for fuels for the week of July 18 to 24. Premium gasoline recovered a subsidy of 8.23% after several weeks without support; Magna rose to 22.20%; and diesel, the most subsidized fuel, reached 50.64% of its quota, according to PesoMXN. The national average price for Magna stood at 23.69 pesos per liter, near the voluntary cap of 24 pesos set by the federal government.

Goldman Sachs projects that Brent could exceed $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026 if maritime transport disruptions persist. With two of the three main global crude chokepoints under simultaneous tension, the trajectory of international prices and fiscal spending on subsidies in Mexico will depend on the evolution of the military front in the coming days.

This note was drafted with AI assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.