IEA cuts 116 GW from China and adds 12 GW to Latin America

The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised upward its renewable capacity forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean: the region will add 165 GW between 2026 and 2031, 12 GW more than in its previous forecast, according to the Renewables 2026 report published on November 6, 2026. The adjustment contrasts with the cut of almost 116 GW applied to China.

At the global level, the IEA projects almost 4,800 GW of new renewable capacity in 2026-2031, close to 60% more than in the previous six years, according to the agency's statement. China will remain the largest market, but its share of new installations will fall from more than 60% in 2025 to an average of 53%, and its forecast was revised down 5%, almost 116 GW, according to the report's executive summary. The adjustment reflects a year-on-year drop of almost 55% in Chinese solar additions from January to September 2026, after the country replaced fixed tariffs with competitive auctions, according to Energía Estratégica. For the region, the signal lies in the flow of capital: the IEA revised its Latin American forecast upward by 12 GW, with distributed solar as the main driver.

Brazil accounts for almost 90 GW, 55% of the regional total, with 86% solar installations and distributed generation as the engine. Mexico will add around 22 GW, more than double the 2020-2025 figure, with solar above 90% of the expansion, according to Energía Estratégica. Chile will add close to 20 GW, two-thirds solar. Brazil's large-scale segment is losing momentum due to lower auction activity and transmission constraints. In the regional mix, solar will account for almost 80% of new capacity and will surpass hydropower in installed capacity before 2030, while the hydropower share of generation falls from 40% to 35% between 2025 and 2031, according to the report's executive summary.

The bottleneck is in the connection: the queue of projects at an advanced stage grew 60% in a year, to 3,000 GW, four times the solar and wind capacity connected in 2025, according to the IEA. The next data point to watch will be the capacity that comes into operation in Mexico and Brazil before 2030.

This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.