IEA proposes electricity cover 35% of final energy by 2035

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that the world will add close to 12,000 gigawatts (GW) of electricity capacity over the next decade, more than double the 5,000 GW of the previous ten years, according to its executive director, Fatih Birol, at COP31, held in Antalya, Turkey, from November 9 to 20, 2026. Birol told The Guardian that oil and gas will continue to be used, but that electricity is becoming the dominant source.

The summit brings together governments from 185 countries with a resolution on the table: that electricity account for 35% of global final energy by 2035, the initiative known as 35 by 35, up from about 23% today, according to OPIS, a market information firm owned by Dow Jones. Today three quarters of final energy comes from fossil fuels, above all in transport, heating and industry, The Guardian reported. Support is not unanimous: Saudi Arabia and Russia oppose the text, India ruled out signing it and China has not formally backed it, according to OPIS. For Mexico and the region, the point of attention is capital: Birol describes the eventual resolution as an unmistakable signal to markets and investors about where electricity investment is headed.

The drivers of the shift are three, according to the IEA: artificial intelligence and data centers, the electrification of transport and air conditioning, the largest in volume. Global electricity demand is growing three times faster than total energy demand, and outside China electric car sales rose 60% in nine months. OPIS adds that the cost-effective target with available technology is 33%, that current policies deliver 30% in 2035 and that grids must expand 40% faster than in the past decade; meeting the goal would save importers between 400,000 and 500,000 million dollars a year. Birol stated that 35 by 35 will not be just another promise, but a turning point for the sector. In Norway, 98.81% of new cars sold in September were electric, The Guardian reported.

COP31 concludes on November 20 and the final text will define whether the goal remains as a commitment. The IEA will track progress annually and IRENA will lead a program to expand distribution grids in developing countries, according to OPIS.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.