Slim Forecasts 2.5 mbd Output; Pemex Refining Fell 11.8% in May

Carlos Slim Helú projected on July 2 that Pemex's crude oil production will rebound to between 2 and 2.5 million barrels per day (mbd), driven by contracts with Woodside Energy and Petrobras. The forecast was announced at an event organized by the Mexican Union of Engineering Associations (UMAI).

Slim's projection, coming from the country's largest private investor, arrives at a moment of acute operational pressure on the state oil company. According to Expansión, which compiled official Pemex data published on June 30, crude processing at the National Refining System (SNR) fell 11.8% in May 2026, settling at 941,158 barrels per day compared to 1,067,820 in April. The Minatitlán refinery posted the sharpest contraction, down 52% month-on-month. Pemex crude production averaged 1.36 mbd between January and May 2026, per the company's official operational statistics portal.

In his remarks to UMAI, Slim argued the recovery depends on "letting these offshore companies get to work," referring to exploration contracts with Woodside Energy, operator of the deep-water Trion field, and Brazil's Petrobras. He also cited UNAM specialists who believe Cantarell still holds additional reserves below the Cretaceous layer, and called for renewed drilling: "I don't know why no one has gone to take a look there." The SNR, meanwhile, processed 941,158 barrels per day in May, weighed down by outages at Minatitlán and Madero, both refineries with more than a century of operations, according to analyst Ramsés Pech, cited by Expansión.

The second half of 2026 will test whether private operators entering deep water can offset the decline of mature fields and the intermittent performance of the SNR. Progress at the Trion field and the formalization of the Petrobras agreement are the indicators to watch.

This article was produced with AI assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.