Independent Analyses Detect 137,900 Unregistered Barrels per Day in Pemex's Balance

On July 16, the newspaper Reforma reported that two independent analyses by consultancies Cifra2 and Energy2100 detected that 137,900 barrels per day of crude oil and condensates from Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), equivalent to 8.34% of national production between January and May 2026, have no registered destination in the company's institutional database. The figure means that one in every 12 barrels extracted during the period lacked documented traceability.

The discrepancy, totaling 20.8 million barrels over five months, arises from comparing the average daily production of 1,653,300 barrels against volumes sent to the National Refining System (1,085,200 barrels per day) and those destined for export (430,200 barrels per day). That same day, Pemex issued an information sheet characterizing the figures as "incorrect" and attributed the gap to methodological omissions. According to the company, the analyses fail to account for inventory shipments and receipts, operational movements such as pipeline packing and unpacking, and volumetric adjustments for temperature, all of which are standard components of any hydrocarbon balance.

Cifra2 director Francisco Barnés de Castro told Reforma that the cumulative volume of missing barrels since 2019 amounts to 80 million barrels, a figure he stated exceeds Pemex's total storage capacity across its salt caverns, the Ku-Maloob-Zaap floating terminal, and the tanks at Dos Bocas, Salina Cruz, and Cayo Arcas. The discrepancy pattern is not new: according to the Energy2100 study, directed by Gustavo Sánchez Lugo, inconsistencies in the crude oil balance date back to at least 2010, and the historical cumulative total from 2000 to May 2026 reaches 226.4 million barrels. Preliminary findings were presented to Pemex's senior management in 2025 without, according to the document, receiving the required institutional attention.

Pemex maintained that the 137,900 barrels per day correspond to operational flows in transit to refineries and export points, and rejected any interpretation of product diversion or loss. The consultancies called for an external audit to review the national crude oil balance. Attention now centers on whether the company will publish a detailed breakdown of the operational flows that accounts for the full discrepancy.

This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.