Mexico's Finance Ministry Reports 238-Basis-Point Drop in Pemex Credit Risk
Pemex's five-year CDS falls from 460 to 222 basis points and Mexico's sovereign CDS from 120 to 80, per the Finance Ministry; lower credit risk reduces the company's debt financing costs.
Mexico's Finance Ministry (SHCP) reported on August 26, 2026 that the credit risk of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) had fallen 238 basis points since the start of the current administration. The company's five-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) moved from approximately 460 to 222 basis points, while Mexico's sovereign CDS declined from 120 to 80, according to the ministry.
The SHCP published a credit-risk assessment for Mexico and Pemex that was picked up by El Financiero. The figure complements the reduction in the company's gross debt as a share of GDP, which reached 4% in 2025, its lowest level in 11 years, and the first rating upgrades since 2013: Fitch added three notches and Moody's two during the second half of 2025. The lower risk perception reduces the cost of hedging and financing for Pemex in international markets, a metric closely watched by holders of Mexican debt and investors active in the corridor between the U.S. Gulf basin and Latin America.
Pemex's five-year CDS now stands 105 basis points below its 2012-2024 average of 327, while Mexico's sovereign CDS is near investment-grade-country levels, 38 basis points below Brazil and up to 428 below Argentina. On February 13, 2026, Pemex returned to the domestic capital market after a six-year absence, attracting demand of 63,285 million pesos and achieving a two-times oversubscription of the amount placed. The reading is not unanimous: in El Economista, columnist Luis Miguel González noted that Mexico's 10-year dollar-denominated bond yields approximately 6.5%, above non-investment-grade issuers such as Costa Rica (5.3%) and Panama (5.9%), attributing the spread to the risk of Pemex contagion to the sovereign.
The next reference point is the spread on Mexico's 10-year sovereign bond against U.S. Treasuries, which Excélsior reported at 175 basis points, alongside upcoming rating agency reviews. The market will compare that cost against Pemex's CDS of 222 to confirm whether the improvement holds.
This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.
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This article was drafted with AI assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.