Mexican Mix Falls to Three-Month Low: $73 per Barrel

The Mexican Mix closed on June 16, 2026 at $73.05 per barrel, the lowest level since March 4, according to data from El Financiero and Bloomberg Línea. That price leaves Mexico's export crude USD 4.25 below the $77.30 per barrel assumption the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP) embedded in the Pre-Criterios Generales de Política Económica 2027.

The 6% drop on June 16 was driven by the preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz: expectations that the passage would reopen to Iranian tanker transit eroded the geopolitical risk premium that had underpinned crude prices since early May, according to Bloomberg Línea. Brent traded at $79 that day and WTI at $76, placing the Mexican Mix at a $3 to $6 discount to international benchmarks. For Mexico, the trajectory carries direct fiscal implications: the SHCP's Pre-Criterios project an annual average price of $77.30 per barrel for 2026, and crude price movements feed directly into public sector oil revenues.

Every dollar of differential in the annual average oil price equals USD 600 million less in public sector revenues, according to the SHCP's Pre-Criterios Generales de Política Económica 2027, as cited by Bloomberg Línea. The Mix has posted a sustained decline since early May, driven by the retreat of that risk premium. Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) production adds a further variable: the state oil company is recording 1.6 million barrels per day (b/d), its lowest level in four decades, which reduces the volume of crude available for export, according to Bloomberg Línea. El Financiero translated the same sensitivity into pesos: MXN 9,600 million per dollar of variation in the annual average price.

The next price marker is the progress of Washington-Tehran negotiations to formalize the Strait of Hormuz agreement. The status of those talks will set the crude price horizon for the second half of the year.

This article was written with artificial intelligence assistance based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.