Mexican Crude Mix Falls 2% to $72 Following U.S. Oil License to Iran

The Mexican crude mix closed on June 22, 2026 at $72.1 per barrel, a 2% decline from the Friday June 18 close, according to Infobae. The trigger was a 60-day permit issued by the U.S. government allowing Iran to sell crude on international markets, as part of peace negotiations between the two nations, Bloomberg Línea reported.

The license expands the supply of crude available on global markets after weeks in which tensions in the Strait of Hormuz had kept prices elevated. The announcement pushed benchmark prices lower: Brent fell to $78 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $74, according to Bloomberg Línea. The Mexican mix, which trades at a discount to Brent due to its heavy crude composition (Maya-type), followed the trend. For public finances, the sensitivity is direct: every one-dollar movement in the barrel price equals $600 million in public sector revenues, per the same source.

Consultancy Wood Mackenzie, cited by Bloomberg Línea, projects that Brent will average $78 per barrel in 2027 and fall to $70 in the fourth quarter of that year as Iranian crude integrates into global supply. The firm noted that the risk premium associated with the Strait of Hormuz declined following the Washington-Tehran understanding, reversing part of the bullish correction from prior weeks. For Mexico, the transmission mechanism is direct: the Mezcla's export price is negotiated as a differential over Brent, so any movement in the benchmark crude flows straight through to state oil revenues.

The first milestone to watch is the expiration of the 60-day license, around August 21, 2026. The actual volume of Iranian barrels entering the market within that window will determine the pace of price adjustment and the scale of the fiscal impact on Pemex and federal government revenues.

This article was produced with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.