Guyana Surpasses Colombia and Will Reach 1.06 Million b/d in 2027

Guyana surpassed Colombia in 2025 as South America's leading crude producer, averaging 777,000 barrels per day versus Colombia's 746,000, according to an analysis by the National Association of Financial Institutions (ANIF) published on August 14 by Bloomberg Línea. The country went from producing no oil before 2019 to becoming the region's third-largest producer.

The crossover reflects two opposite trajectories. Guyana is growing thanks to ExxonMobil's discoveries in the offshore Stabroek block, which began in 2015, and the rapid deployment of fields with competitive extraction costs. Colombia, by contrast, faces declining investment in exploration and production: active drilling rigs fell from 149 to 93 between 2022 and 2026, the country has not signed new hydrocarbon contracts since 2022, and is experiencing the natural decline of mature fields, according to Bloomberg Línea. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) notes that Guyana became a meaningful contributor to global crude supply when production began in 2019, with more than 30 additional discoveries in the block.

Projections widen the gap. The EIA estimates that Guyana's production will reach 1.06 million barrels per day in 2027, driven by the Uaru and Whiptail developments, while Colombia's 2026 Medium-Term Fiscal Framework places that country at around 717,000 b/d. The Stabroek block partners plan to raise combined capacity to around 1.3 million b/d by late 2027 with three projects: Yellowtail, Uaru, and Whiptail. The contrast extends to gas: Petrobras announced on August 3 a new deepwater discovery in Colombia, where it operates a consortium with Ecopetrol, according to Bloomberg Línea. The boom also poses a challenge for Guyana: the International Monetary Fund notes the country does not show clear symptoms of Dutch disease, but warns that the risk is elevated given the concentration of revenues in a single sector.

The figure to watch is the Stabroek timeline: the EIA projects 1.3 million b/d of capacity by late 2027, and projections cited by ANIF estimate that Guyana will produce more than 300,000 b/d above Colombia within two years. Colombia is seeking to revive exploration to replenish reserves.

This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.