Global crude supply falls 3.9 mb/d as Mexico nears its production ceiling

The International Energy Agency's (IEA) June 2026 Oil Market Report documented a 3.9 mb/d drop in global crude supply in 2026, to 102.4 mb/d, while Mexico recorded output of 1.37 mb/d, with just 0.13 mb/d of headroom against its 1.5 mb/d sustained capacity.

The contraction originates in Strait of Hormuz flows, which in May touched a low of 9.6 mb/d before recovering to around 12 mb/d in early June, according to the same report. Shipments through the Strait remain below pre-conflict levels, sustaining supply constraints on Persian Gulf benchmark crude. For Atlantic basin markets, where Mexico places a large share of its crude exports, reduced Middle Eastern oil availability has supported demand for Western Hemisphere grades. The IEA places North Sea Brent at around $82 per barrel, a price that reflects the prevailing supply premium.

The impact extends to the regional financial picture. According to Bloomberg Línea, analysts note that oil prices above pre-conflict levels are a key variable in sustaining the appeal of Latin American assets in the second half of 2026. In that context, the Mexican peso maintains, per the same analysis, a differentiated position in the region: higher liquidity, lower relative volatility, and the backing of a trade surplus with the United States that reached $270 billion in 2025. With Mexico operating on just 0.13 mb/d of spare capacity, the margin to absorb a technical production outage is thin, and every additional barrel of exports feeds directly into public-sector revenues.

The IEA projects a global supply recovery of 8 mb/d in 2027, reaching 110.3 mb/d, contingent on the pace at which Hormuz flows return to normal levels. The next Oil Market Report, expected in July 2026, will update Mexico's production figures and signal whether the tight 0.13 mb/d margin holds or deteriorates.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.