EIA Projects Record U.S. Natural Gas Production of 122.5 Bcf/d in 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected on August 11 that the country's marketed natural gas production will average 122.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026, a record surpassing the 118.5 Bcf/d set in 2025. The forecast appears in the August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), published on the same day.

In the first half of the year, production averaged 121.3 Bcf/d, 4% more than the same period in 2025, with growth concentrated in the Permian Basin (Texas and New Mexico) and Haynesville (Louisiana and Texas). For the region, the record consolidates the supply base feeding U.S. Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals and cross-border gas trade to Mexico and the rest of Latin America, the deepest link between the U.S. market and the continent. Reuters confirmed the forecast and noted that the United States has been the world's largest natural gas producer since 2009.

In the Permian, the EIA projects 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, 6% more than the prior year, driven by associated gas from crude oil extraction; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) averaged $84 per barrel through July, above basin breakeven prices, and a growing gas-to-oil ratio adds to output. In Haynesville, production will grow 9% (1.3 Bcf/d) this year, sustained by the Henry Hub price, which the EIA places at $3.44 per million BTU, and by proximity to Gulf LNG terminals. U.S. LNG exports rise from 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025 to 17.4 Bcf/d in 2026 and 18.6 Bcf/d in 2027, with the commissioning of Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage 3, and Golden Pass, according to Gulf News.

The supply-demand balance tightens in 2027, when the EIA expects LNG demand to grow faster than supply, pressing prices and storage. The September STEO will show whether new Gulf export capacity can offset that gap.

This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.