CENACE Forecasts Record Power Demand of 54,000 MW This Summer

Mexico's National Energy Control Center (CENACE) estimates that between May and July 2026, the National Electric System will reach a peak load of 54,000 megawatts, an unprecedented figure for the country, according to reports from Reforma and El Diario de Chihuahua. Heat waves, industrial expansion, and nearshoring are driving consumption to levels never before recorded.

The system operator rules out a structural supply deficit at the national level this summer, supported by preventive maintenance programs and coordination with generators. CFE and CENACE have stated they can guarantee supply despite the surge in demand.

The operational challenge is not simply generating enough electricity, but maintaining the reserve margin that ensures reliability during peak hours. Sector analysts flag the Yucatan Peninsula as one of the most exposed areas, given constraints on natural gas availability in the region during the hottest periods.

System performance over the coming months will serve as a test for firm capacity planning and for the transmission grid. The Watt will track demand trends and the reserve margins reported by the operator.