Brent Closes at $80.57 Despite Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

Brent crude closed on June 20, 2026 at $80.57 per barrel, posting a daily gain of 0.9%, even as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recovered to approximately 12.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) following the provisional memorandum between the United States and Iran, according to data reported by El Universal. The closing price, holding above $80, signals that markets have not yet fully priced out the geopolitical risk premium.

The persistence of prices at this level makes more sense in context. Brent had shed 7.7% on a weekly basis by June 20, having lost more than $40 per barrel from its peak during the Middle East conflict, according to El Universal. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and the provisional memorandum with Tehran unlocked the strategic waterway, but final negotiations with Iran remain open on a 60-day horizon. As long as the agreement stays provisional, markets will maintain an incomplete discount on the geopolitical premium.

The IEA's June Oil Market Report, published on June 17, documents the underlying dynamics: Hormuz flows fell to a low of 9.6 mb/d in May before recovering to approximately 12 mb/d in the first weeks of June. The IEA projects a 1.1 mb/d decline in global demand for 2026, with supply estimated at 102.4 mb/d. Observed inventories in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries fell by 143 million barrels in May, reaching their lowest level since December 1990. For Mexico, this moderate price environment creates room for technical adjustments to the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) applied to gasoline.

The nearest reference point is the IEA's July Oil Market Report, alongside the progress of final negotiations with Iran within the 60-day window. The risk of a breakdown in those talks remains an upward pressure factor on Brent, with direct implications for Mexico's IEPS adjustment margin.

This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.