Brent Hits $72.24 a Barrel, Erasing All Gains from the Iran War

Brent crude fell to $72.24 per barrel (USD/bbl) on June 25, 2026, its lowest level since February 27, erasing all gains accumulated during the US-Iran conflict. The 40% drop from April's peak, achieved in three weeks, is the fastest correction in oil markets since the 2020 pandemic.

The decline reflects the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global crude supply flows, following the framework agreement between Washington and Tehran reached the previous week. According to The Guardian and MarineTraffic data, more than 20 tankers carrying approximately 35 million barrels of crude departed the Persian Gulf after the deal. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that at least 20 million barrels transited the strait within 24 hours, though full normalization will take weeks due to ongoing demining operations.

The August Brent contract traded below the September contract ($73.59), a contango structure signaling ample near-term supply, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $69.32 per barrel. Macquarie Group cut its Q3 2026 Brent forecast to $67 per barrel, down from $94 in the second quarter, according to Reuters. Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Markets, warned that the speed of the decline caught markets off guard, as traders are now pricing in a return of Middle Eastern barrels far faster than anyone anticipated just two weeks ago. Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote projected that crude will trade in a $60 to $80 per barrel range in the coming weeks.

For Mexico, the impact is direct. Pemex exports Maya crude priced against Brent, and every $10-per-barrel swing moves approximately $1.6 billion in annual revenues. The fiscal assumptions underpinning the 2026 Budget set a base price of $55 per barrel for the Mexican export blend. With Brent at $72, near-term pressure on the Finance Ministry eases considerably. The key date to watch is August 21, when the 60-day US license permitting Iranian exports expires and markets will learn whether Hormuz flows hold or reverse.

This article was produced with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.